Download Building Models for Marketing Decisions by Peter S.H. Leeflang, Dick R. Wittink, Michel Wedel, Philippe PDF

By Peter S.H. Leeflang, Dick R. Wittink, Michel Wedel, Philippe A. Naert

This ebook is set advertising and marketing types and the method of version development. Our fundamental concentration is on types that may be utilized by managers to help advertising judgements. It has lengthy been recognized that straightforward versions frequently outperform judgments in predicting results in a wide selection of contexts. for instance, versions of judgments are inclined to supply higher forecasts of the results than the judgments themselves (because the version removes the noise in judgments). and because judgments by no means totally mirror the complexities of the numerous forces that impact results, you may see why types of tangible results can be very appealing to (marketing) selection makers. hence, competently developed versions supplies insights approximately structural kin among advertising variables. considering versions explicate the family, either the method of version construction and the version that finally effects can enhance the standard of promoting judgements. Managers usually use ideas of thumb for judgements. for instance, a model supervisor could have outlined a selected set of different manufacturers because the aggressive set inside of a product type. often this set is predicated on perceived similarities in model features, ads messages, and so on. If a brand new advertising initiative happens for one of many different manufacturers, the logo supervisor could have a powerful inclination to react. The response is partially according to the manager's wish to continue a few aggressive parity within the mar­ keting variables.

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This type of model is not very useful 18 CHAPTER2 from a managerial decision making point of view because nothing is said about how demand (q) depends on price. In the logical flow model this relation is approached by trial-and-error. If the manager wants to have a clear description of how decisions are currently made, a logical flow model may be sufficient. In the following section and in Chapter 5, we shall devote extensive attention to the specification of the demand relations. 4 Numerically specified models In numerically specified models, the various components and their interrelations are quantified.

These subjective judgments can be used to calibrate a model. This approach is used, for example, in the CALLPLAN model for Syntex (Lodish, 1971). This approach represents the best one can do with the limited information at hand but it can leave everyone somewhat uneasy. 3 On using subjective estimates, the Syntex senior vice-president of sales and marketing concluded: I. See also Herniter and Howard ( 1964, p. 38). 2. This example is taken from Leeflang (1995) and based on ideas of a model developed by Rangaswamy, Sinha and Zoltners (1990).

This means that if it was decided to add a warehouse in a particular area, one would then search for an appropriate location as a separate problem. 21 At this point, the problem had become more manageable, without yielding a model so different from the (perceived) real problem as to make it useless. This representation of the system was then modeled by Wareloc Consultants, and a heuristic was developed to search for a "good" distribution network. 6 million over 1995 and a saving of perhaps $2 million over the projected distribution costs for 1997.

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